PUBLIC FORWARD RECORD · BTC 15 MINUTE

No blended score. No rewritten history.

Every qualified call is timestamped under the model version that made it. Current results never borrow wins from an older engine.

Market feed connected. Only qualified calls enter the record. Last engine update: Sep 27, 6:19 AM UTC. Latest qualified call: Sep 27, 1:50 AM UTC.

CURRENT MODELv5.5.1 · BTC 15MForward results only · launched as a fresh sample

Calls sealed3

Scored3

Pending0

Direction accuracy100.0%

Brier score0.006

99% is a target, not a verified result. V5.1 starts a fresh forward sample; prior results remain archived below. Calls now require at least 90% estimated probability, close venue agreement, sufficient feeds, a spread no wider than 4¢, and at least 3¢ estimated edge after a standard taker-fee allowance. These experimental gates may issue very few calls and do not establish 90% or 99% accuracy.

Measured uncertainty: 95% Wilson interval: 43.9%–100.0%, from 3 scored calls. Serially related rounds can make this interval optimistic. Accuracy measures direction only. Brier score measures probability error; lower is better. Neither includes realized fills, fees, slippage, or trading P&L.

AUTOMATIC DATA COLLECTION · INCLUDES WAIT ROUNDS

Forward evaluation

Collecting on the server every minute, even with this page closed. Started: Sep 21, 10:26 PM UTC. Latest recorded sample: Sep 27, 6:19 AM UTC.

8481 snapshots across 505 observed rounds. 501 rounds captured in the 10:00–9:00 remaining window; 501 officially settled. Qualified-call coverage: 0.6%. Missing windows are not backfilled.

All lock samples, including WAIT: model Brier 0.195; venue baseline Brier 0.193. Venue baseline excludes samples without a venue probability. Repeated minute reads are not counted as independent trials.

Estimated confidenceScored roundsDirection accuracy95% interval

50–60%16557.6%49.9%–64.9%

60–70%14274.6%66.9%–81.1%

70–80%11071.8%62.8%–79.4%

80–90%7087.1%77.3%–93.1%

90–100%14100.0%78.5%–100.0%

IMMUTABLE CALL LOG

Current-version calls

3 most recent shown

SealedCallProbabilityOutcomeResult

Sep 27, 1:50 AM UTCUP92.5%UPCORRECT

Sep 23, 8:50 AM UTCDOWN93.3%DOWNCORRECT

Sep 22, 5:20 AM UTCDOWN90.4%DOWNCORRECT

VERSION ARCHIVE

Older models stay separate

VersionScoredAccuracyBrier

v5.5.1 · BTC 15M3100.0%0.006

v5.4.0 · BTC 15M4100.0%0.006

v5.0.0 · BTC 15M22870.6%0.192

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